BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • If you’ve been following the evolution of the Marcellus and Utica you know the seemingly perpetual need for new pipeline takeaway capacity. However, we are entering a special time in the history for the region as the first of a wave of greenfield pipeline projects enter service. This kicks off sweeping changes that will hit … Continue reading "Northeast Pipes Have Arrived. Now What?" The post Nort...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • Earlier this month TransCanada announced that they will no longer be moving forward with their Energy East pipeline. This news comes after Canada’s regulatory agency, the National Energy Board (NEB), expanded the scope of its review to include risks associated with oil spills, as well as upstream and downstream greenhouse gas emissions. Some have cited … Continue reading "Energy East Falls Victim ...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • As US rig counts plateau and storage inventories both globally and domestically continue to decline, WTI has found support above the $50/bbl mark. However, even with the recent decline in drilling rigs, BTU Analytics estimates that the US is still on track to grow another 1.6 MMb/d through next year. On top of that, while … Continue reading "Oil Market Outlook: Are Prices Set for a Correction?" Th...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • Two weeks ago, BTU Analytics published a free analysis of how the market has been rewarding capital discipline versus overspending in the E&P space over the last year. While rewarding / punishing the stock price is a critical element to influence decision makers within each company, management compensation incentives are also meant to influence  behavior. … Continue reading "Executive Incentives D...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • Over a year ago, BTU Analytics began publishing in our Upstream Outlook concerns of West Texas natural gas capacity constraints and impacts to the natural gas market. Since then, BTU Analytics has published several free pieces on the issue (Permian Gas Takeaway Headed For Tight Times and Permian Shut Ins Ahead?), in addition to deeper … Continue reading "Permian Associated Gas, Party Crasher" The ...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • In Oklahoma, producers have perfected the art of branding. Two of the state’s most promising areas aren’t named for a single formation or basin as many of the well known US plays are, but rather branded with acronyms. The SCOOP (South Central Oklahoma Oil Province) and the STACK (Sooner Trend Anadarko Canadian and Kingfisher) have … Continue reading "East STACK: Rebranding the Arkoma Woodford?" Th...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • Over the years, the Haynesville’s significance to the natural gas industry has come in waves. In 2008 many predicted it would be the play that defined US natural gas production growth, and was the hot spot where investors and large E&Ps were trying to stake their claim. But after the Henry Hub price crash of … Continue reading "The Haynesville. A Sleeping Giant?" The post The Haynesville. A Slee...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • If we told you that there was one variable that could swing our US production forecast 10 Bcf/d and 2 MMb/d over the next two years, you would want to know what that variable was.  The question of whether US E&P companies need to fund their own drilling is that consequential. Our models have always … Continue reading "E&P Capital Discipline. All Talk, or Real Consequences?" The post E&P Capital D...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • As U.S. gas-focused E&Ps have become more efficient, they have also needed new markets for the gas they produce.  And the good news for those producers is that natural gas demand in the U.S. has grown from 65 Bcf/d to 81 Bcf/d  from 2011 to 2017 as shown below.  The largest gains are from LNG … Continue reading "Is Renewables Pain Offsetting US Gas Export Gains?" The post Is Renewables Pain Offset...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • It has been a bumpy ride, but the Northeast has finally begun flows on the first major greenfield project to come to market in almost a decade – Energy Transfer’s Rover. This begins a major shift in Marcellus and Utica production dynamics, with implications for the future of Dominion South and Henry Hub pricing– but … Continue reading "Rover Volumes Up, But At Whose Expense?" The post Rover Volume...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • An additional 3.5 Bcf/d of new takeaway capacity is due to come online in Southwest Appalachia by January 2018. Now that Phase 1A of Rover is operational, many in the market are fixated on whether or not new capacity will fill immediately with new production.  The number of wells that can be turned to sales … Continue reading "Think DUCs Will Fill New Northeast Pipe Capacity? Think Again." The pos...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • On September 12, Tallgrass Energy Partners (NYSE:TEP) announced an open season for its Cheyenne Connector natural gas pipeline which will add at least 0.6 Bcf/d of gas takeaway from the DJ Basin to interconnect with Cheyenne Hub in Wyoming. The project is expected to be in service in 3Q 2019.  Due to strong comparative economics, … Continue reading "Cheyenne Connector Increases DJ Running Room" Th...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • BTU Analytics recently estimated the impact that electric vehicles (EV) could have on US natural gas markets due to incremental power burn demand. The flip side of the EV discussion is to understand how much EVs will impact oil markets. Many sources, including the supermajors, claim that gasoline demand lost from EV adoption will be … Continue reading "Electric Vehicles Pulling the Plug on Oil Dem...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • BHP Billiton recently announced that they plan to sell their US onshore shale assets, which include assets in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, and Fayetteville. More than 800,000 acres of unconventional oil and gas is on the table with initial valuation estimates approaching $10 Billion according to some banking sources. As potential acquirers evaluate the … Continue reading "Shale Sale – How...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • A few months ago we wrote about Ultra Petroleum’s (Nasdaq: UPL) drilling plans following their emergence from bankruptcy.  Ultra Petroleum was a top independent E&P a decade ago, but experienced financial troubles when the shale boom created a natural gas glut that drove prices to the ground. Today, a successful restructuring has revitalized the company, … Continue reading "Can Ultra’s Increased A...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • The media blitz surrounding the delivery of Tesla’s first Model 3 sedan, the company’s first mass-market vehicle, got many in the energy market thinking about the impact of greater electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Does this represent a major risk to oil demand, a potential boon for natural gas-fired generation, both or neither? Today we’ll put … Continue reading "Electric Vehicles a Boon to Gas-Fir...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • The next round of LNG export projects have been making headlines, and based on recent announced E&P activity and relatively weak gas demand in 2017, the U.S. gas market may need these projects as a new source of demand by 2021.  As of a year ago, BTU’s forward view only fully incorporated new pipeline capacity … Continue reading "The Next Round of LNG Export" The post The Next Round of LNG Export ...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • In 2013, Mexico initiated steps to reform the state-run oil and gas monopoly to allow foreign entities to explore for resources.  Last month, two separate discoveries in the Mexican Gulf of Mexico (‘GOM’) were announced with a combined estimated total resource of 2.4-3.0 billion barrels of oil in place, and production could start as early … Continue reading "GOM But Not Forgotten: Mexico’s Gulf of...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • As U.S. oil production growth appears to be heavily weighted to the back half of 2017, how much cash producers can secure for those barrels will be a major factor in whether lofty production targets can be maintained into 2018. That’s where hedging comes in. Hedges on oil and gas production help E&Ps lock in … Continue reading "U.S. E&Ps Flying Blind: Lack of 2018 Oil Hedging Leaves Production Vul...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • Crude prices have rallied from the summer lows in June to break $50/bbl once again as the impact from OPEC cuts has started to trim the global oil market’s excess storage levels, but the ability for OPEC cuts to drive prices higher in 2018 continues to be in question. OPEC cuts are planned through March … Continue reading "Tightened Global Oil Balance Drives Crude Rally, But Will it Last?" The pos...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • On the night of August 3rd, the US Senate confirmed a package of new Trump administration nominees before adjourning to go on recess. Among those 65 nominees approved were the administration’s first two nominees to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), Robert Powelson and Neil Chatterjee, drawing to a close a saga that began on … Continue reading "What the New FERC Quorum Means for the ...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • West Virginia only releases well-level oil and gas production data once per calendar year, and results from 2016 were finally just released in July. Having data this lagged for a state that’s critical to the Southwest Appalachia (Marcellus) production outlook becomes a bit like driving forward using the rearview mirror. BTU Analytics leverages well-level production … Continue reading "Rearview Mir...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • Last year BTU wrote an article about the cyclical pattern of service cost margins and the correlation with WTI pricing. As crude prices fell throughout 2015, both Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) and Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) showed margins dropping from averages near 18% to sub 5% by early 2016. Now, a year later, the trend is finally … Continue reading "Service Margins Poised to Rebound" The post Service ...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • Recent headlines from journalists and industry veterans alike have pointed to the latest EIA Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) as a sign that US oil production growth rates are slowing and that the growth in Permian productivity has stalled out. (See chart below).  BTU Analytics would contend that those hoping that Permian productivity has hit a … Continue reading "EIA Drilling Productivity Repor...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • The number of drilled uncompleted wells (DUCs) in the Permian (or “PUCs”) is rapidly increasing as drilling activity in the region is outpacing completion activity. Total Permian DUCs reached nearly 1500 in June, over double what they were a year ago, as seen in the figure below. This increase in Permian DUCs comes as the … Continue reading "Hangover Part 2? Permian DUCs on the Rise" The post Hang...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • It has been well documented that the growth of Marcellus and Utica gas production has altered flow dynamics on Transco. We have previously cited how Appalachian gas has continued to push farther and farther south (Transco Null Point Rambles South). However, Appalachian gas is impacting Transco in another way – backhaul projects out of Western … Continue reading "Appalachian Gas on Collision Course...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • In January 2016, BTU Analytics took a look at Southwestern Energy’s latest efforts in the Moorefield Shale, which lies underneath the Fayetteville Shale in Central Arkansas.  The finding at the time was the Moorefield wells were putting up initial production (IP) rates that were comparable, and in some cases, superior to Fayetteville shale well IP … Continue reading "Southwestern Energy Seeing Suc...

BTU Analytics, LLC
BTU Analytics, LLC
Blog Post
  • Per the World Health Organization, almost three billion people cook and heat their homes using biomass (agricultural waste, firewood, animal dung, etc.), and the resulting indoor pollution causes approximately four million premature deaths each year.  Many developing countries are transitioning to more efficient fuel sources such as Liquefied Petroleum Gases (“LPG”), which include fuels, or … Cont...

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