Mortgage News Daily is a news and social media website serving the mortgage, and real estate housing industries. The website serves over 50,000 members, combining the housing industry with a social media platform.

Wikipedia
Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Bonds ended in the green today, albeit just barely.  Normally that wouldn't be a bad thing, but today's example leaves a bit to be desired. I should start off by saying that today could have been much worse than it was.  Indeed, any time we can avoid ending in the red these days is an opportunity to count blessings.   With those disclaimers out of the way, I'll get back to the lament.  At the...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Markets closed on Friday with a government shutdown still in limbo.  Ostensibly, that meant the reaction in stocks and bonds wouldn't be fully seen until this morning.  Indeed, there was a reaction, and for all the fuss made over the shutdown in the news (and even among some traders/analysts), the end result may be hard to believe (unless you've been paying attention to our analysis or otherw...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Today's sell-off brought 10yr yields to their highest levels since the middle of 2014 (when they were on their way down following the taper tantrum.  With this, bonds have weakened substantially for each of the past 3 weeks.   That's where the small ray of hope comes in.   Because the past 3 weeks of pain in bond markets are NOT acting as a correction to an overly-big rally, and because they'...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Yesterday's recap is a good read if you didn't happen to catch it.  Here's a link. In general, there are 2 things going on with rates right now.  1. confirmed uptrend beginning in mid-December and still intact 2. lurking buyers potentially getting closer to buying after a break to the highest levels in more than a year. Actually these 2 things are always going on with rates if we reduce them ...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Well... at least things are interesting.  The winter holidays are always a challenge from an analytical and market-watching standpoint.  It seems like a vast oversimplification (indeed, I didn't believe it was true when someone tried to educate me years ago), but "new year momentum" can really be the primary motivation for bond markets.  And it really can be something we just have to wait for...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Is the decades-long bull market in bonds over?  I imagine we'll be talking about this sort of thing every time yields spike to multi-month highs and even every time they spike aggressively after hitting multi-month lows.   It's a bit of an unfair conversation.  As long as you are capable of understanding that rates can't go perpetually lower, you will have a big leg up on anyone who asks you ...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Last week's bounce at a ceiling of 2.60% (twice, essentially) was enough for some DEFENSIVE hope.  In other words, it introduced the possibility of the recent selling trend running out of steam near these levels.  But as I cautioned at the time, there were connotations for a strong OFFENSE bringing rates in the other direction.  For that, we would have at least needed to break below 2.52% and...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • There's bad news and not-quite-as-bad news.  Longer-term bonds (the stuff we care about) are either in a modest, steady, long-term uptrend (in rate), or they're in a more aggressive, shorter-term uptrend.  Actually, they're currently only truly inside the latter (the worse one), but they're very close to the gentler trend--perhaps even trying to break into it this week. This is what bond bull...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Had it not been for a fairly abrupt sell-off in stocks (the first big day of losses in 2018, and the biggest open-to-close sell-off since late August for some major averages), there's no guarantee that bonds would have ended the day stronger.  Even then, only some  of the yield curve was stronger--specifically 7yr notes and higher. This is part of the "curve flattening" trade that dominated 2...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Don't get too excited.  Despite a few close calls and false alarms, bonds managed to close below last Tuesday's highs for three days in a row.  Now they begin the 4th day in slightly stronger territory.  To an optimist's eye, the bond market is building a case for a ceiling bounce. One way to approach such potential bounces is to consider the implication of technical analysis.  One of the mor...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • I laughed out loud today--something I rarely do when reading typed words--after MBS Live cornerstone Sung Kim quipped "thank God China is buying today!" This joke works on so many levels.  Much of the week was devoted to chasing a red herring of a story that claimed China was mulling a reduction in its US Treasury portfolio.  Rational people or those who believed the things I was yelling knew...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • A majority of market participants (or their mentors) were steeped in the extraordinary inflation/rate volatility of the late 70's and early 80's.  As the recovery from the financial crisis began, and as the Fed was pumping trillions of dollars back into the system, these market participants thus had an unhealthy fear of every little uptick in inflation at first.  As reality unfolded, we've se...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Yesterday morning's news regarding China potentially buying fewer (or selling) US Treasuries has been a big talking point.  While most pundits and even a few traders jumped on the bandwagon right off the bat, we immediately flagged it as a Red Herring.  By the end of business yesterday, there were a few good news stories that also began to push back on the suspicious assertion. But the best p...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Yesterday, the possibility of China decreasing its purchases of US Treasuries was all anyone could talk about.  Amid a sea of voices declaring this as a major fundamental market mover for US rates, I yelled counterpoints from my soap box. Today: vindication.  The push back had already begun as of yesterday afternoon, but the best snippet came in this story from Reuters, which said  “the news ...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Yesterday: Japan.  Today: China.  Stakeholders, journalists, and even a fairly wide swath of bond traders are eager to make sense of the past 2 days of weakness, even when that weakness isn't easily ascribed to a single headline or development. The first big trading idea in 2018 is to SELL longer-term bonds faster than shorter-term bonds (aka a "curve steepening" trade).  We knew this was a r...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • The proverbial "you know what" just got real.  We'd been waiting for the first big dose of bond market momentum following months of consolidation heading into the end of 2017.  We figured it would show up around the 2nd week of January.  It's showing up.  It's the less pleasant of the two possible outcomes.  The end. Seriously, that's it for today's Day Ahead. There's no sense in overcomplic...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • In certain circles, much was made of overnight news that the Bank of Japan would be buying fewer bonds.  That's about as far as most news stories delved into the topic, despite it being more complicated than bond-buying news in the US.  Let's break it down: In the US, the Fed lays out a guaranteed amount of bond buying that will occur each month.  The Fed has also set in motion a guaranteed s...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • This commentary was delayed this morning due to several alerts posted on MBS Live.  If you're not a member and haven't checked it out, you should. Bonds are beginning the day with their biggest sell-off since January 2nd, but this one is a bit more disconcerting because it's taking 10yr yields over their 2.52% technical ceiling (hasn't been broken since March 2017).  At face value, today's we...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory (emphasis on "slightly").  The overnight session was calm and thinly traded with Japan being out of the office for the day.  European bond trading helped set a positive tone for US bond markets, but that began to erode shortly after the NYSE open (9:30am ET). It would be fair to think that 9:30am weakness has something to do with the stock ma...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Not to be confused with the consolidative trend seen in Q4, 2017, there's been a slightly more negative consolidation underway in the last few weeks.  If it's not adequately implied by the verbiage, a consolidation refers to prices or yields getting closer together.  On a chart, this often takes the form of "lower highs" and "higher lows."  That said, it can also take the form of "ascending l...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Harker and the curve...  It's not  a song or a morning radio show. It's a reference to the Fed's Patrick Harker commenting on the yield curve today as well as the possibility of slowing down rate hikes in order to keep arrows in the quiver in the event the tax bill results in some sort of economic overheating.  In that case, the Fed would like to have some more room to hike rates without brin...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • I had my doubts at times, after some of this week's volatility.  I thought perhaps that bonds were showing signs that the "new year momentum" (a noticeable bias toward higher or lower rates that tends to emerge in January as traders are free to make new, long-term, strategic bets after having their hands relatively tied at the end of December) was headed in a negative direction. But now with ...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • The overnight session and early morning hours saw a good, old-fashioned economic-data-driven sell-off in bond markets.  Asian and European data were  both stronger.  That resulted in about half of the day's total damage for longer-term bonds.  The biggest market mover of the domestic session was the ADP Employment report, which was much stronger than expected (250k vs 190k forecast). "But wai...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • If you happen to read and retain most of what I write, you'll have noticed that toward the end of December, I increasingly mentioned that it wouldn't be until the first full week in January (which is NEXT week) that we'd be more likely to see the first major move in bond market momentum for the year.  My friends at BMO Capital Markets went a step further in a client note yesterday, saying we'...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Bond markets improved overnight, but were under pressure in the morning after stronger ISM Manufacturing data and then again following the release of the Minutes from the December Fed meeting.  By the end of the day, a chart of 10yr Treasury yields looked like an EKG returning to a baseline.  One peak for ISM and a smaller secondary peak for the Fed Minutes. Keep in mind that all of the above...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Today brings the first significant economic data of the new year in the form of ISM Manufacturing at 10am.  During times when markets are actively responding to economic data, this is one of the most important reports.  It is traditionally one of the few consistent runners-up to nonfarm payrolls in terms of market movement potential. These days, however, the market's inclination to respond to...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • Bond markets have had worse days, but the average day is definitely better than today.  10yr yields moved more than 5bps higher, bringing them to 2.462%, just shy of the important 2.47% technical level.  Just to show they weren't afraid to test those waters, intraday yields were as high as 2.4815.  Fannie 3.5 MBS (the coupons with the most relevance for mortgage rates) fared much better, losi...

Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily
Blog Post
  • New Years Day doesn't always fall on a day that allows for a 3.5-day weekend.  When it does (as it did this year), the first day back to work tends to be an extension of the vacation for financial markets unless something significant happened over the weekend.   Nothing significant happened over the weekend. All that to say that bond markets aren't walking in the door today and suddenly revea...

Out-Market Your Competitors?

Get complete competitive insights on over 2.2 million companies to drive your marketing strategy.

Create Free Account Log in

By signing up, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Out-Market Your Competitors

Get complete competitive insights on over 2.2 million companies to drive your marketing strategy.

Create Free Account

Already a user?  Log in

By signing up, you agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.