Sapienta Economics Ltd
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Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 16 Apr 2017 Why are SME bad loans rising?
    Banks made good progress during 2016 in cutting bad loans. By the end of the year, the stricter category of non-performing exposures (NPEs) had fallen year on year by €3.1bn to €24.2bn, while non-performing loans (NPLs) on a more than 90 days past due (90+ DPD) basis had declined by an even larger €3.8bn. This produced […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 31 Mar 2017 Exec summary Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus
    The following is a shortened version of executive summary in the monthly, in-depth Sapienta Country Analysis Cyprus. For more about Country Analysis Cyprus visit here. For subscription options, visit the subscription page  Political analysis and outlook: We are holding the prospects of a settlement of the Cyprus problem at 30%. Poor EU-Turkey relations, combined with the […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 31 Mar 2017 Turkey’s next moves over Cyprus and gas
    Last week, Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued another statement about offshore hydrocarbons exploration in the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Turkey has been issuing statements since 2004, when the Republic of Cyprus (ROC) first delineated the EEZ. For reasons I shall explain below, the latest statement has been keeping me awake at night. Read […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 26 Mar 2017 What’s behind the EU-Cyprus budget spat?
    On Tuesday, Finance Minister, Harris Georgiades told state radio that the Eurogroup meeting for eurozone finance ministers had accepted his position on the government’s budgetary policy. While there was no specific reference to Cyprus in the official Eurogroup statement by the president, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, he did say that during the meeting they had “followed up […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 12 Mar 2017 No solution – no UN and no gas?
    Efforts to solve the Cyprus problem are dying fast. In an interview with Kibris on Monday, the UN Special Advisor, Espen Barth Eide said something that should wake everyone up on this island. Translated back from the Turkish, he said: “If the process fails, I have the feeling that it will not be possible to […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 04 Mar 2017 Updating Cyprus’money-laundering record
    Just over two weeks ago, Transparency International published a report called “Top Secret Countries Keep Financial Crime Fighting Data to Themselves”. Transparency and good preventive practices are important because money-laundering cases are difficult to prove. The Magnitksy case, for example, has been open in several jurisdictions for years (although the UK never opened a case […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 05 Feb 2017 Will Cypriots spend or save their extra income?
    If you earn a gross salary of more than €1,500 per month, you will have noticed an increase in your net income at the end of January. This is because the ‘special contribution’, introduced as part of the bailout programme, expired at the end of 2016. How big that increase was depends on how much […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 29 Jan 2017 Is the East Med gas pipeline an option for Cyprus?
    The Cyprus News Agency (CNA) reported this week that the cost of the EastMed pipeline from Israel to Cyprus, Crete, the Peloponnese in Greece and then Italy would be $6bn. This is close to the $5.7bn figure cited by Globes a few months ago. CNA also said that a study presented in Brussels had found […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 22 Jan 2017 Where might Juncker’s €3.1bn come from?
    The Cyprus News Agency (CNA) reported last week that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the Commission could allocate €3.1 billion to Cyprus in case of a solution and that this would be part of the Multiannual Financial Framework. EU officials have not confirmed the figures. What we do know, however, is that the EU […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 15 Jan 2017 Bank of Cyprus and the long road back
    Next week Bank of Cyprus (BoC) will start trading on the London Stock Exchange. This follows an announcement last week that it had fully repaid all Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to the Central Bank of Cyprus. ELA, as its name implies, is the last resort for a bank. When a bank has lent out more […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 25 Dec 2016 Financing property compensation
    In the 1980s, a majority of the 45,000 or so displaced Turkish Cypriots signed a piece of paper surrendering their property in the southern part of the island in exchange for an entitlement (called points). This entitlement was exchanged for something no one had the right to give them (Greek Cypriot property) and, for obvious […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 14 Sep 2016 Country Analysis update: solution prospects held at 40%
    Sapienta Economics is holding the prospects of a solution of the Cyprus problem at 40%, following a somewhat cautious statement on Wednesday at the end of the intensive phase of meetings between the president of the Republic of Cyprus and leader of the Greek Cypriot community, Nicos Anastasiades, and the president of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and leader of the Tur...
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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  • 30 Nov 2016 Sapienta Country Analysis Executive Summary Nov 2016
    The following is a shortened version of the executive summary in the subscription product. Contacts us for a free trial Political analysis and outlook: We are holding the prospects of a solution of the Cyprus problem within the next 12 months at 45% as efforts to keep the talks going continue, but are putting them […]
  • 27 Nov 2016 The lost opportunities of a Cyprus velvet divorce
    Even before the collapse of the Cyprus negotiations in Mont Pelerin on Monday, the words ‘velvet divorce’ had been creeping up in conversations. The gist of the argument is that Cypriots are incapable of living together, so let’s end the Cyprus problem with a deal to live apart. If this is the game-plan of some […]
  • 20 Nov 2016 How far have Cyprus property prices fallen?
    This week, the Central Bank of Cyprus published its residential property price index for the second quarter of 2016. Prices dropped by a comparatively mild 0.5% over the previous period and by 1.7% compared with the second quarter of 2015. If you own an apartment in Paphos, the news was even better, as it was […]
  • 12 Nov 2016 Clouds over next year’s Cyprus tourism season
    In 2016 Cyprus enjoyed a bumper tourism season, with arrivals rising by 18.8% in January-September and reaching a record 2.6 million. This week, the Minister of Commerce, Energy, Industry and Tourism, Yiorgos Lakkotrypis tweeted: “Cautiously optimistic for another strong year of #UK visitation to #BeautifulCyprus”. I hope he is right. But there are a few […]
  • 06 Nov 2016 Banks should step up on Cyprus problem
    Next week, Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci will spend five days at Mont Pèlerin hashing out some of the most politically thorny aspects of the Cyprus problem. If things go well, then we shall be well on our way to the final phase: the multi-party conference in which the security aspects of the Cyprus problem […]
  • 22 Oct 2016 Northern Cyprus demographics: an update
    This week the topic of the demographics of a united Cyprus has been back in the news again. President Nicos Anastasiades said that 40,000 people of Turkish origin could stay in Cyprus after a settlement (he quickly corrected a slip of the tongue where he mentioned 90,000). It is therefore an appropriate moment to pick […]
  • 16 Oct 2016 Why the pound is sliding
    If you are earning an income or a pension in sterling, you are already feeling the pinch of a weaker British pound. At the time of writing, sterling was 18.3% weaker against the euro than on January 1 and 17.6% weaker than exactly a year ago. The key vulnerability for the pound is the large […]
  • 09 Oct 2016 Enigmas in Cyprus’ global rankings
    In 2015, the Cyprus economy clambered out of recession, the long-awaited foreclosure law was finally passed and the government submitted its proposals for public-sector reform to the Attorney-General. The start-up scene has also been busy, with initiative such as the IDEA programme sponsored by Bank of Cyprus and Chrysalis Leap. Yet somehow this was not […]
  • 25 Sep 2016 What gas price earns Cyprus €600 million a year?
    This week the finance minister, Harris Georgiades, told parliament that government income from natural gas could reach €500-€600 million per year in around 12 years’ time. As part of the Aphrodite contract, government revenue will start to flow after the energy companies have recouped their costs. This is one reason why Georgiades mentioned 12 years […]
Sapienta Economics Ltd
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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New blog articles detected.

  • 14 Sep 2016 Country Analysis update: solution prospects held at 40%
    Sapienta Economics is holding the prospects of a solution of the Cyprus problem at 40%, following a somewhat cautious statement on Wednesday at the end of the intensive phase of meetings between the president of the Republic of Cyprus and leader of the Greek Cypriot community, Nicos Anastasiades, and the president of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and leader of the Tur...
  • 06 Sep 2016 How do you solve a problem like Morphou?
    More than 12 years since the last big effort to solve the Cyprus problem, the negotiations have finally entered the “make or “break” phase. There is a general acceptance that this is the last best window for what could end up being a very long time
  • 28 Aug 2016 Cyprus refugees, property and homes
    I have long argued that the property aspect of the Cyprus problem cannot be solved until the number-crunchers sit side by side with the political negotiators. This is because one can argue for years over an issue that seems enormous in theory but once you do the numbers, it becomes smaller in practice. For example, a small proportion of Greek Cypriot dispossessed owners owns a very large amount of...
  • 21 Aug 2016 Are Cyprus SMEs being ripped off by banks?
    Lending rates in Cyprus have been tumbling in recent years. In December 2007, a month before Cyprus adopted the euro, a small business would pay an average interest rate of 6.51% on loans of up to €1 million. Today, the same business would pay just 4.23% for a new loan.
  • 14 Aug 2016 Russia-Turkey warm up is an opportunity for Cyprus
    The visit to Moscow by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week consolidated the rapprochement that had already begun shortly before the attempted coup in mid-July
  • 07 Aug 2015 Debt and deflation
    Cyprus is now well into its third year of deflation. According to the EU-harmonised consumer price index, prices fell by 0.4% in 2014, 1.5% in 2015 and by 1.9% in the first half of 2016
  • 31 Jul 2016 Aphrodite’s Cyprus problem
    While everyone is getting excited about the big-name bidders in the third Cyprus offshore gas licensing round, it is worth remembering the excitement that first greeted the discovery by Noble Energy in late 2011 of the Aphrodite field in offshore Block 12.
  • 24 Jul 2016 A Turkish Cypriot EEA?
    I have spent the best part of the last 13 years trying to do my bit for a federal solution of the Cyprus problem, so writing this article feels like committing a cardinal sin. But for the many and multiplying reasons I have written about elsewhere, time has almost run out for solving the Cyprus problem any time this decade.
  • 10 Jul 2016 No gain without wage reform
    Back in 2013, the Cyprus economy was staring over the abyss. Two of the largest banks were about to fold, the government was unable to borrow money to recapitalise them and it was not at all certain that there was political will among eurozone leaders to help
Sapienta Economics Ltd
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